Consumers are predicted to buy both online and at physical stores this holiday season, and like last year, some will be shopping for the best deals and will choose to buy from businesses they feel connected to.

“Higher costs and holiday pressures mean shoppers will make more intentional trade-off decisions in every category,” according to the 2025 Commerce Forecast Report by Inmar Intelligence.  “Every dollar will be scrutinized — but spending won’t drop.” 

While early indicators may not point to record numbers, small business owners see plenty of opportunity for a successful sales season, and are prepping accordingly. 

Consider these insights and tips from retail analysts and consumer surveys as you develop your holiday season strategies.

Discounts and Coupons

Whether offered online or at-store, holiday discounts and coupons punch plenty of marketing power for small businesses this year.

“Reach channel-hopping consumers with a mix of incentives placed dynamically across channels — including coupons, digital offers, cash back, and personalized deals — to keep your brand top of mind and in the basket,” advises Inmar Intelligence.

More than half (55 percent) told the Inmar Intelligence survey that discounts, coupons or promotions influence their purchasing decisions.

“Consumers will use a mix of savings formats, including digital and paper coupons, instant redeemables and direct-mail discounts to make their budgets stretch,” writes Tatiana Walk-Morris in a Retail Dive brief about the forecast report.

Online and At-Store

Holiday shopping is expected to be almost equally split between online and in-store this year.

“Holiday shoppers will toggle between in-store, online, and mobile touchpoints, often switching channels mid-journey,” says Inmar Intelligence on its website. “Forty percent will discover products in one channel, but then purchase in a completely different channel.”

More than 70 percent of consumers told the Inmar Intelligence poll they planned to shop online, and 65 percent said they would visit stores in person this holiday season, says the Retail Dive post.

As far as purchases, more than half (59 percent) told the Inmar survey they planned to buy gifts in-store. Also, 50 percent of the consumers polled said they’d make purchases on their mobile devices, 30 percent on computers and 15 percent said they’ use social media platforms.

“Today’s purchase journey is increasingly nonlinear, and for the holidays, discovery and purchase will not happen in the same channel or at the same time,” explains the Inmar Intelligence forecast.

High-income Consumers and Budget-Watchers 

Average per-household spending levels are expected to be slightly higher this year compared to last.

Each household on average will spend $1,223, and that would be 7.4 percent higher than the average last year, says the 2025 annual Holiday Shopping Study by strategy consulting firm Simon-Kucher.

However, the study cautions, the predicted growth is coming from high-income households. “Among middle- and lower-income consumers, spending remains more cautious and selective.”

Businesses should keep this in mind as they look at strategies, says a Simon-Kucher article by director Maximilian Walter and partner Shikha Jain.

“Retailers will need to consider how to serve both higher-income shoppers who are ready to spend more and value-focused customers who are making more selective choices,” they write.

Further, many shoppers are delaying when they begin shopping, according to Simon-Kucher — 60 percent say they won’t start until October or later.

 “Some will begin earlier if they are working within a set budget or keeping an eye on specific price points. Others prefer to wait; confident they can find what they need closer to key dates or even after them.”

Personalization and Connection

Businesses prepping for the holiday season should look to opportunities in mobile commerce, social platforms and AI shopping tools, advises Sky Canaves, a principle analyst covering retail and ecommerce at Emarketer.

Mobile commerce will drive over 90 percent of the net increase in holiday ecommerce sales this year, according to Emarketer’s May 2025 forecast. 

“Mobile has become the control center for holiday shopping. Consumers are browsing deals during their commute or comparing prices in-store,” Canaves notes.

An Emarketer survey that found 70 percent of Gen Zers discover products on TikTok and 42.5 percent cited TikTok as the most usual platform for product research.

“Gen Z’s influence on holiday shopping is hard to ignore. Their behavior blurs the lines between social and commerce.”

Further, businesses prepping for the season should pay attention to research that shows personalized experience and valued connections are important to shoppers.

It’s not always about the hottest deals, says Sezzle cofounder and chief revenue officer Paul Paradis in a post for WWD. “They’re looking for convenience, exclusive and loyalty rewards, payment flexibility and ease of checkout.”

He cites a WWD survey that shows 74 percent of consumers expect brands to provide an even more personalized shopping experience this year and 66 percent expect brands to make them feel “valued and understood.”

Key Takeaways for a Successful Holiday Season

As the 2025 holiday season approaches, small businesses that combine smart promotions, multi-channel strategies, and personalized experiences are best positioned for success. By offering discounts and coupons, meeting customers where they shop—online, in-store, or on mobile—and creating connections that make shoppers feel valued, businesses can boost sales, build loyalty, and navigate a season where every purchase counts. Preparing now ensures your business is ready to make the most of the holiday opportunity.